Monday, August 31, 2020

What China Might Be Actually Aiming For?

What China Might Be Aiming For In Ladakh?

The tensions on Indo-China border is increasing day by day. Both armies are facing eyeball to eyeball. They are backed with infantry, tanks, armored vehicles and air defense. It is not at all a good situation to face both the militaries in a combat ready mode. Defense experts have rightly pointed out that a small local angry incidence can flareup the battleground.

But the question is, why China is picking up this quarrel with India, knowing it will be very difficult to grab any more disputed land on LAC using force. 2020 India is not 1962 India to be humiliated. Indian armed forces are very well prepared to give a befitting answer to China.

China is also facing hostile situation on its South and South East side. American aircraft carriers are patrolling South China sea. China is having a big problem going on in Hong Kong plus it has picked up fight with Taiwan. Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam. They too are rattled with China's expansionary policy. 

When China is having problems on all its borders then why is it showing hostile posture with India? If the conflict really breaks out then China has more to lose than India. China has already earned bad reputation due to Chinese Virus (COVID19) and a war with India will isolate China internationally.

This is important to note, after 1962 war till now, China had highlighted border disputes on the North East border of India. They have raised objection about Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalay and Sikkim. They have never picked up a border dispute in the plains of Ladakh after 1962. But now they are picking up a fight in Ladakh....WHY?

Challenges on the of J&K border

Before we analyze WHY China is picking up fight in Ladakh, let's first understand how the map has changed since 1947 between India, Pakistan and China in the Jammu & Kashmir region.



Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK)


in 1947 entire princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was part of India. This included Jammu, Kashmir valley, Ladakh, Gilgit Baltistan and Aksai Chin regions.

When Pakistan attacked India in 1947 and illegally occupied part of Kashmir, they snatched two parts of J& K, that is, very small portion of Kashmir valley and big mass of land of Gilgit Baltistan. India was left with Jammu, remaining part of Kashmir valley, Ladakh and Aksai Chin regions. The area marked as "Pakistan Administered Kashmir" is what Pakistan forcefully occupied in 1947.

Illegal occupation Aksai Chin 


Then in 1950 China started building a road inside Aksai Chin w/o India's permission. They wanted to grab Tibet and access to Tibet from mainland China is very difficult due to mountain ranges. Hence they started illegally occupying Aksai Chin to build roads to go to Tibet. This construction activity started in 1950, but was never detected by Indian military till 1957. 

By the time it was detected, it was too late and Nehru ceded Aksai Chin to China saying, that land is useless because it is a cold desert and cannot grow even a single leaf of grass! But obviously Nehru missed the geographic importance of Aksai Chin. He surrendered to the Chinese bullying. He thought, his socialistic ideologue friend China would stop by taking Aksai Chin. But that was not China's aim. They wanted Tibet and that is why they occupied Aksai Chin. 

China's forceful occupation of Tibet


Nehru realized China's real intentions when China attacked Tibet, but by then it was very late. In 1962 India was dragged into a  war with China without military preparation. Nehru was not a firm, resolute and dynamic leader to lead this war. This fact has recorded by number of military experts and diplomatic experts. The moment he realized well prepared Chinese military is getting heavy on ill prepared Indian military, he started giving conflicting signals to the Indian military. As a result, Indian military faced heavy human losses and this demoralized the military. The situation was so grim that Chinese forces were about to enter Assam and Nehru had mentally accepted to give away Assam to stop Chinese forces. 

By that time US had sent its forces to support India. China was aware about it and thus unilaterally declared ceasefire before US forces could reach India. They retained the hold on Tibet but vacated other captured parts of India. India was  defeated and humiliated by China in the war. As a result, India lost Aksai Chin and Tibet, both. 

Pakistan's gift of Shaksam Valley to China


After 1962 China war, Pakistan became more closer to China. Pakistan was always fearing that, one day or the other India will attack Kashmir Valley and reclaim PoK. To mitigate this risk, in 1963 Pakistan donated part of Kashmir to China. This part is marked in the map as "Shaksam Valley". Pakistan thought that if China is made party into the Kashmir dispute then India cannot do anything as India cannot challenge China!!! This is how, China got foothold in Kashmir valley.

Strategic Importance of Siachin Glacier


If you see the map, there is a very small triangular portion that is between Shaksam Valley and Aksai Chin. This is Siachin Glacier. This small portion of Siachin Glacier is separating two Chinese illegal occupation, that is, Askai Chin and Shaksam Valley. If Siachin Glacier peaks are occupied either by China or by Pakistan then Kashmir valley would firmly connect with China mainland.

It is strategically so important that the whoever controls the peaks of Siachin Glacier, they would practically control activities happening in mainland China, Aksai Chin, Shaksam Valley and Pakistan's PoK. 

The Karokoram highway that connects China with Pakistan through road, passed through Siachin Glacier. Karakoram pass, which is one of the oldest trade route is also in the same region. The Karakoram Highway is so close to the Siachin Glacier peaks that normal machine gun fire can block the road. Hence it is a big threat to China and Pakistan. 

Siachin Glacier is a very inhabitable, mountainous and rugged terrine, where living is not possible. This area is always covered with snow, freezing temperatures less than -30 degree Celsius, unpredictable winter storms and huge avalanches.  Due to these reasons, no one between Pakistan, China and India had claimed this region till 1984. It was practically no man's land because all parties thought, it is impossible hold on to the occupation.

But this changed in 1984 when India captured Siachin Glacier and fortified it's military position. After capturing, India fought number of battles with Pakistani army who tried to capture it back but they failed. Since then, Siachin Glacier is firmly controlled by Indian Army. Pakistani still wants to capture this region for the obvious strategic importance. 

India has not only fortified all the mountain top ranges in the Siachin Glacier but even made the Daulat Beg Oldie Air Force base fully operational. This base is situated at 5.1 Kilo Meters height and temperatures are below -30 degree Celsius. Please see the map of Daulat Beg Oldie base to understand its strategic importance.

It is located at a very strategic point to cover China occupied Shaksam Valley, Aksai Chin, Mainland China and Pakistan occupied POK. From this air field Indian Air Force can attack deep inside Pakistan and China. The only challenge is, because of the height, IAF fighter planes have some limitations on carrying fuel and weapons. But that is a different topic to discuss. 


China's financial interests in this region...

China had built Karakoram highway long back to connect Pakistan with China by road. This is their old trade route but it is very long and treacherous route. Plus it was not connecting to any seaports in Pakistan.

China's crude oil supply from Arab countries and Africa is through oil tankers that travel from Arabian Sea, circling Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Indonesia, then into South China Sea and finally into China.

As you can see this route is very long and expensive to get crude oil into China. It is also expensive and time consuming to supply Chinese goods to the West Asia.  Every country needs cheap oil for its economic growth. High transportation cost for oil was hampering China's economic growth plans. Hence they came up with Silk Routes and One Belt One Way policy. This plan is to connect 70 countries for the trade purpose.

As a part of this policy, China started China Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC initiative. Under this plan, China developed port of Gawader in Pakistan for oil pumping. Then created multiple highways inside Pakistan to link East, Central and West Pakistan. All these highways lead to one highway into Gilgit Baltistan. The plan is, get oil from Arab countries in tankers to Gawadar port and transport it to China using CPEC road. The bigger plan is to create pipelines from Gawadar port till China along the CPEC road.

Please see the map below to understand CPEC route and its use of Gilgit Baltistan.



China has invested more than 80 Billion dollars of its own money plus given 50 Billion dollars loan to Pakistan. This huge investment has so far not given tangible results to China due to variety of reasons. Hence China is risking losing 140 Billion dollars investment plus loss of opportunity.

On top of it, India has protested with China and Pakistan for illegally using Gilgit Baltistan area for CPEC. This is because, India claims entire princely state of J&K that joined India in 1947, is legally owned by it. India plans to reclaim this illegally occupied land from Pakistan and China.

And...this is where the current problem is.

China's fear...

China is fearing, if India really reclaims Kashmir Valley, Gilgit Baltistan from Pakistan and reclaims Shaksham Valley and Aksai Chin from China then it will be a big jolt for China's CPEC plans.

It will be cut off from Pakistan completely and thereby with Arab countries and African countries. This will disrupt their oil supply and goods trade route with West Asia. And on top of it, if India blocks sea route for Chinese ships in Arabian Sea then it will face huge problem.

It is because of this fear, China is showing aggression in Ladakh. China and Pakistan feels that if India is challenged on two fronts then India will not dare to reclaim POK and Gilgit Baltistan. They both want to grab more land of India so that their CPEC road connection is not threatened.

China and Pakistan's Military Game Plan...

Look at the map where there is a current military conflict with China in Ladakh region.


The current conflict sites are;
1) Galwan Valley
2) Hot Springs
3) Pangong Lake

My estimate is, these hot spots are just the decoy. China and Pakistan wants India to look some other way so that they can achieve their goal.

I strongly think, the plan is something like this. 
Pakistan and China wants to capture some more land of Ladakh, cut off Siachin Glacier and create a rock solid, wide connection between China and Pakistan. 

Please see the map below to understand what may happen.



The military plan of China and Pakistan might be as follows.

Pakistan will attack Ladakh from Gilgit Baltistan.

China will attack Ladakh from Aksai Chin.

Both these forces would capture the portion of Ladakh; that could be in one of the three ways shown above (depicted in three colors).

The aim would be to cut off Siachin Glacier from India thereby ending India's threat to China, Pakistan and CPEC from the peaks of Siachin Glacier.

Grabbing the land around Siachin Glacier would join Pakistan with China with solid mass of land and then, India cannot threaten Pakistan to reclaim PoK and Gilgit Baltistan. 

This is the reason why Pakistan has moved its infantry in Gilgit Baltistan region instead of PoK. This is the reason why China is not ready to take back its forces from the three hot spots.

China may agree on the negotiating table to take back its forces from the three hot spots but in reality it will never pull back. China is known for such treacherous behavior and should never be trusted. They played the same game of negotiations with India in 1962. This time too, they will attack India when both Pakistan and China are ready to attack. Till then China will continue to come to the negotiating table with a statement for "peace".

Conclusion....

India must be prepared to fight a big bloody war with China and Pakistan simultaneously. 

China may open another front in the North East region of India to stretch India's fighting forces.

Pakistan may open another front on India's western border to further stretch Indian forces.

Pakistan may try to infiltrate terrorists in Kashmir Valley and start internal disturbances.


The war may start by August, September  and take a very dirty turn. As they say, you can decide when to start the war but you cannot decide when to stop. Hence end date is not known.

Indians must get prepared...


210 comments:

  1. Now I have a better perspective.. thanks

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    1. In case Pakistan dare to war with the help of china definitely there will be a big war involving many other countries. And there will not be POK, only Kashmir. Our ministry of foreign affairs should work to get support from international.

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    2. May be you are using maps published by Pak / China that's why you talk about India Administered Kashmir.
      Entire part is our Kashmir (not India Administered). Some part is unfortunately under occupation by Pak

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    3. Kashmir was never a part of india

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    4. And other hilairious jokes

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    5. Who is that bloody idiot, who has written Kashmir was never a part of India? Is that fellow a Pak Jihadi?

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    6. not only Kashmir but Pakistan itself was a part of India but few jihadi terrorists captured it with the help of British and nehru

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    7. Send jihadis to Pakistan

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    8. India should destroy all 40+chinese cities by using nuclear wespons and destroy their economy,they have earned this punishment through their actions

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    9. Good article and insights.
      Actually Pakistan and Bangladesh never existed. Entire South Asia belongs to India. Whoever is disputing it, should be thrown into Indian Ocean.

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    10. Mr kishore , a very good in-depth analysis. I think China has opened up many operational theatres in south china sea, taiwan, Philippines, japan also . This is to keep everyone guessing as to where it will really fight.If war is inevitable let's hope Baluchistan is also liberated along with pok, cok so that belt road project is washed away.

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    11. Now pakistan sucking balls of dog eaters... Since there own balls and other one also is ka#tta off.

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    12. A very good analysis. Lats down in simple terms the entire gamut of actions that may unfold in the near future. India has to have an all-round preparation for this upcoming conflict. Diplomatic, world opinion, Info and Psychological W , necessary tie ups with countries that can be relied upon. Our ASEAN neighbours who are equally distressed should be taken on board. No opportunity should be left to eat away at their international credibility and morale. Thank you very much for the wonderful paper. This blog must be made viral.

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  2. As usual Kishor, a clean surgically accurate analysis. Yogesh Rao

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  3. This could be a game plan if china and pak. But, India has penetrated in depth in sichem. Vacating us nit easy for chinese. Moreovere,china doesnt have war experience.

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  4. Kishore, Excellent thesis with very good insight.

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  5. Kishore, well narrated with facts

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  6. Dear Kitti,
    Is their any suggestion from you or from any military experts that you know of, regarding how to get back our lands occupied by china and Pakistan? please publish whatever you have.

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  7. Kitti, the Karokoram pass and the highway are not under observation and fire of any Indian position as of now. Please reconcile.

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    1. He did not say they're under fire. He just mentioned that teh Siachen Glacier is important because of it's proximity to the Karakoram pass.

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  8. Nice analysis. Hope this won't happen p

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  9. I think, China will let Pakistan front do all the theatrics of war. Reason - they don't have a strong backup in Tibet. Also,if Baluchistan and Sindh revolt, Pak front will have to be played only by militants. Pak will get stretched by internal disturbances and have nothing in hand to obtain financial support against. Loans from China are already a burden. They may opt nuclear if that option is still available by that time.

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    1. One most watched video showing Indian troop movement is pathetic ,every truck had soldier standing with machine gun and few yard Indian army check post .what that clearly showing that troop movement are feeling not safe .1948 1965 ran out of ammunation and Pakistan was depending on USA . Now it has backing from China . Please check your history 1948 india ran to UN , 1965 Run to Russia , Kargil to USA . Now went to Russia (no help). One factor you ignore is average Pakistani know how to use Gun and they have millions and millions of guns (like Americans) their is no shortage of voulinter armed civilians and lastly indian Army is bogged down in Kashmir

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. Very correct future plan of china is stated in article .But we r also ready to heat back.

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    4. Think alternative. Occupy gwadar and work back with baluchis. If china opens..it will be called aggressor..if pakistan open ..we are just looking for POK..a legitimate..stated position..

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  10. China like East India company has become arrogant and aggressive. For them to dominate the region they need to cowdow India and Japan, rest will fall in race.CPAC is vulnerable so taking advantage of COVIT they would like dominate new assertive India.

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  11. I doubt China has ever raised any claim of Meghalaya as this state doesn't share its its boundry with that country. Please recheck

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  12. Both the country can't afford war against India. Also India will not attack first. So there is no chance of a full scale war.

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  13. I think now international community will play a dynamic role in favour of India.

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  14. Really speaking Chinese are aiming to regain their glorious past of ruling vast territories which now it doesnt have due to British rule in Asia , Russian revolution and two world wars.
    But those were different days , which is not possible now.
    In the end it will bite the dust.

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    1. The time has come to the democratic world to work for getting chinese people indipendence from the rouge regime of communists and it becomes a democratic country.

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  15. We should have taken POK first and then tackled China.We just talk.

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  16. We shouldn't let China succeed in CPEC.
    Nobody is going to fight our war.We keep things brewing and then rake up the issue internationally.We have to solve our problems on our own.

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    1. We r solving problems on our own even getting help from big countries we r refusing it as we r capable to deal bu our own strength

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  17. Get ready for ghazwe hind

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  18. Very good analysis. There is reason for everything. This will be a good chance for us too. To take back pok and give Tibet freedom. We should turn this difficult situation to our advantage. Let us be prepared.

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  19. Thanks to give us a informative view on Indo-China dispute.good job sir

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  20. Very nice but this will never happen. Bcz it will cost more on china. Don't know. Bcz they lost their chance by killed 20 our soldiers

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  21. This time it's neither Nehru nor Manmohan Singh but it's Modi ji who is our PM . Better , they don't underestimate the power of Indian ARMY , it's PM & their own reputation

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    1. Modhi ji , Pakistan army and people loved him ,he is getting 100% marks. He killed 300plus agarwati in surgical strike and shot down f16.but majicaly all bodies and shot down plan disappeared in thin air . He planned effectivly got Pakistan sidelines in the world . He is so smart all the counties lined up to help India , Nepal ,Bengladesh , are only signing agreement on papers with China . He only let Pakistan airforcec at day time visit India and shot six targets , and accidentally killed 6 officers killed in halicopter crash , Abinander went to drink tea in Pakistan . He loves peace Pakistan army violation gone up 100%, Chinese killed 22 poor Indian soldiers and Indian soldiers are super man with summer unforms no weapons they killed 40 soldiers. Again Chinese bodies disappeared . 10 Indian officers and soldiers went to China to drink tea unfortunately India has bad tea no Pak or Chinese came to drink tea in India . Open up your eyes most of your brave soldiers are Punjabi and Pak is 60% Punjabi . Indians can not handle ten time smaller Pak .thanks to our friend Modi currently Kashmiri political parties and people are on one page ,Pak do not need US or Europe , Pak has no shortage of manpower and China has no shortage of $$$$$. If conflict start it will be not two fronts but 12 fronts war . In 1971 India had Russia and Bengali people . Now Pakistan had China and Kashmiri people

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    2. Idiots can keep their trap shut

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    3. That was a nice joke that pakistan has got a lot of $$$$$🤣🤣

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    4. But in case China and Pak attack us simultaneously on many fronts, then India will need full support of democratic countries to seal off China from critical sea routes as well as to help Baluchs to attack Pakistan.

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    5. You should better try to keep your shit within you...because everyone who will read this is going to think so...

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    6. INDIA have no balls to fight against China. INDIA already given sikkim ladakh to China without firing single gun shot. INDIAN ARMY is SCARED of Pla

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    7. Due wrong decision by nehru we r suffering this loss,u idiot wont understand.
      Just to inform
      Indian army is one of bravest in world.

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    8. Yes I agree it's our PM modiji,its a new india

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  22. Really nice to read the full article in details.

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  23. It is correct analysis by Kishor. With mounting international support India getting now, both Pakistan & China will be isolated. The conventional war of occupying territories is redundant in this era of missiles inflicting huge devastation.India having nuclear option, can threaten both China & Pakistan if they try to encircle India. So with nuclear reality it is most unlikely that such scenario will emerge. However, posturing will continue to see whether India will buckle under pressure. The current leadership is unlikely to give in to such bullying.

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    1. Yes very isolated especially Russia, Nepal Bangladesh , Burma , Pakistan all neighbors standing with India , China has money , India has homeless please check your pathetic crona response , million's on the road dying without water , babies carried by moms walking 300 miles on foot , dead bodies on the road , Police beatings on camera. Indian army even can not travel without soldiers having finger on their guns million thanks to Modi ge first time in Indian history , Kashmiri political parties and people on one page .not single voice against China from Kashmiri people.

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    2. Definitely India and Indians will reply with action and in action . Just recall and remember 1948, 1965 1971 and 1999.

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    3. Porkistan is a shameless country with shameless citizens. They lost to India 4 times but still haven't learnt their lesson. The Pakistanis are now poorer than Nepal and Bangaldesh. I hope modiji divides Pakistan into 4 pieces

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    4. Cowmootistani Slumdog INDIAN ur people don't even have clean water to drink toilet to shit.30% INDIAN live slums like dharavi in Mumbai.

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    5. We still have such fools in our country who think Kashmir was never a part of India. Jammu n Kashmir was and will ALWAYS be a part of our great country. Time to take back what we lot from these idiots. (Pak/China).

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  24. Thanks a lot...now I got a good perspective over this..

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  25. By the time revolt in Hong Kong, Tibet,Taiwan, POK,Balo,Gilgit,even Russia not forgotten what China got from them..

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  26. Very realistic analysis.Our Govt should note this and make discreet planning to successfully deal such a situation. The befitting reply would be to liberate Tibet and recover POK, if necessary by joining military alliance with China's rivals.

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  27. Very detailed analysis.
    Great.now I am very clear.

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  28. Woww.... Bro u rock..even i ws sensing smthng fishy about China's occupation but ws not sure at all wats gng,u cleared it very well. India should be prepared dam well to face both alltogether. Only strong leader like Modi ji cn stop them. I think bfr they attack, India should attack n capture Gilistan to lower d risk.

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    1. Everybody here is saying that it is very clear to them what porkis & Chinki eyes are upto! But will you all indians stand up & fight? Will you take arms in your hands & fight? We indians here need to be united by this reality not just saying oh bro! You cleared the things by explaning this matter,it is clear as water what these two of our worst enemies are upto! Wake up & fight

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    2. Very educative. Very informative.
      And, after reading this piece, it is now clear as to what are China's motives.
      It was bewildering why such a flare up so suddenly. Now, it is clear that this must be a well planned aggression by China and a well rehearsed tactical move by China, in collusion with Pakistan.
      The coming days for India seem ominous.
      But, people burning effigies and calls to boycott goods may be the self-satisfying and self-eulogising activities, but these won't carry the Nation far.

      The need of the hour is the military preparedness that gets initiated by military commanders, not by Hawks. Whether such Hawks are the minority pappu followers or are the self-projected, self-proclaimed and self-propelled ultra-nationlists close to the present Indian rulers, is immaterial... . .

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  29. Very good logical analysis with all angles.

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  30. Very clearly narrated...global powers supporting India is a great turn on the recent developments....we are well placed now...they can realise their plight for any misadventure by now

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  31. Replies
    1. Iam sure you know english,so just shut up

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  32. Great analysis , people like you should take the decision of India so that we can continue to have the strategical advantage we use to have after Independence

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  33. best analysis. But both pakis and Chinese never succeed in their plan. They would loose Pol, GB and Aksai chin. Our PM is firm, resolute and dynamic leader unlike Nehru. We will surely succeed if war is imposed upon us. But I think war will not start in August but definitely in November-December or at the most in October.

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    1. Just having firm PM is of zero help. Crucial thing for our PM will be to get active support of all major democratic powers to open war fronts at all weak areas of China & Pak

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    2. Do you know the weather in Nov Dec in that area can anyone even think of war at that time

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  34. Good analysis. China is going to burn their hands for sure. Pakistan will keep quite, as they are in doldrums. India should start taking back all the areas from China and Pakistan. Let us March forward. Jai Hind

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  35. This information is more useful to understand each and evry point regarding India, China and Pakistan war, land, routes, trades etc. Thank you sir

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  36. We need to Marshal both army and airforce at strategic locations to not just counter china and pakistan but we should win back our entire J&K region which was with us after independence in 1947. In addition to this we need to remove PLA and chinese occupation of Tibet.

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  37. Excellent dig into history and reality Congrats

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  38. Well explained by author
    Good gyan of d area
    I think modi did kno ur thoughts

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  39. Wow!! So clearly explained.

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  40. IT is very clearly narrated with facts figures

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  41. There is no source mentioned. How can we beleifs someone's perspective just because they are from a political history student background... Am not cleaning anyone... Let's analyse inn detailadetail take stands

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  42. There is no source mentioned. How can we beleive someone's perspective just because they are from a political history student background... It they have explained clearly. Am not blaming anyone... Let's analyse inn detail and take stands.. Request the blogger to share sources

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  43. It's clearly mentioned the its political & financial interest of China's & Pakistan.

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  44. Excellent analysis. Needs world's awareness
    Bhagaban Rautaray, Kurds Odisha India

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  45. Good analysis and a forewarning of future scenario. India must prepare to teach both the belligerents, nuclear powered countries, with good strategy and backing from at least one super power. We had that in the shape of the Indo-Soviet Peace treaty during the Bangladesh War of 1971 which we won against the Pakis resoundingly.

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  46. Excellent analysis. Need, world's awareness

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  47. Great analysis,perfect article

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  48. Ty very much .... I got more detailed picture about the situation and reason of this tension ....

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  49. Yes the analysis is quite expressive. The plans of pakistan and china also explained. Wish to know the manpower needed for war. This would certainly be an exercise in present warfare since such planning must be going on by all the concerned. Hope another political surgical chance for modi and the company.

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  50. Thank for clearing all doubts. Got excellent understanding. It is an opertunity to free Tibet from China and retake the occupied J&K from Pakistan with the support of other countries.

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  51. India has been at war since the invasion of Alexander the great to this present day.
    Our psyche and will to fight, survive and decimate the enemy is Battle Hardened.
    This is something the world should never forget.
    Also standing upto a bully head on even in the face of certain death, now that is a life worth living and and an Honourable death.
    Bring it on, we will fight.

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    1. India has been at war only because others attacked.We never initiated war against any country, and that is our proud merit.I saw all of you doing imaginative analysis on the situation, quite interesting. Don't forget there are experts who might have already devised the strategy on how to start and the course etc.

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  52. We should be ready for war with all efforts and all should fight unitedly. China is going to lose a big trade partner and gains Will be less. Pakistan may disintegrate in the form of Baluchistaan. Of courstto bring peace war is necessary sol.

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  53. I for have been having this gut feeling that it's India's strategic game play & that we have war gamed this scenario to take karakoram pass & that China is just falling into the trap we have set

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  54. Every nation make their own history and add 100 lies to prove themselves right.earn indulgence from innocence

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  55. Your view point is correct to certain extent but....other end the situation over 14 frontline borders along China will be also open .....as tense situation around South China sea will be more critical ..then ladakh ...for china to hold the posts...around and above that China intrrnal situation are also not .....

    What we can see further is not only breakdown of Pakistan into 4 different regions but even breakdown of China also possible ..And could be divided into more then 4 parts ....

    China is badly trapped in its own trap and now difficult for them to come out ....



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    1. Wish what u r saying comes true !
      This can only happen if all other powerful or even not so powerful democratic nations join hands to block China & Pak and to attack China & Pak at crucial locations

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  56. Good analysis but reality is not easy for pak and China.If it will happen then pak will loss their pok.

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  57. Excellent!the excellent analysis my brother.United patriotic efforts are required within, to win the privaling situation.Neighbours should stop licking the spits of covid- 19 ,
    fathered by China.Thank you

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  58. Really it is very deep planning of Pakistan & china.

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  59. Yes, that's what both planned.

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  60. Very accurate analysis . How can thus be reached to all, I say all, Indians. Lots of Chinese and Pakistani agents are floating confusing articles in the electronoc media that india cannot fight Chins, they are very powerful. All media to be advised to ban such articles. If they do feel they should send those to GOI to identify these buggers and keep watch on them.

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  61. Use consistent maps please. CEPC map depiction has indian region as india held Kashimr which is not consistent with our stand on the kashmir valley.
    On the topic itself, India taking pok or aksi chin as much as we like it is not pragmatic considering economic impact on India of doing the same. China has border skirmish with 18 neighbouring nations currently, India is just one of them along the so called undefined border in that region. An economic war is what will get us in better shape for the long run.

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  62. Very nicely described and with maps, it has become even more understanding.

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  63. Get ready for a long war.

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  64. Factor in US Carriers Strike Fleets in S. China Sea, massive flooding in South China, economic slowdown due to floods, Coruna. Restive population, discontent on PLA casualties in Ladakh and a better analysis will emerge. Further Indian army would be factoring in all these surely. If you , me & lots of people discuss this on social networks like we are experts then those in line of fire would be too. Right ?

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  65. Thank you so much.Your analysis is correct and clear. We are now understanding the whole picture of the present border situation .

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  66. Incorrect sequence of events. China first occupied Tibet and later Aksai Chin!! Please at least Google bwfore writing blog!

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  67. Waging war against India will automatically declare China and Pakistan enemy States implying forfeiture of all the agreement and contract with Pakistan and China.It will hard hit China.

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  68. Yes, very nicely explained in simple way so that readers understood it correctly with described maps. Never before it was described in simple way like above blog. Thanks, Kishsor Katti, he took much pain to collect all imp facts n true informations.

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  69. Gilgit baltistan are actually POK..author has wrongly quoted them separately

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    1. The author is write There were five parts of Maharaja Hari Singh Jammu, Kashmir,ladak, Gigit and Baltistan.
      The Britishers by crockery gave away Gilgit and Baltistan to Pakistan
      The Pakistanis fought with India for Jammu and Kashmir there was never a war over Gilgit Baltistan The Britishers did not want India to be connected to Afganistan because they thought then Russia would have direct acess to India and Indian occean via Afghanistan

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  70. Well planned enemy strategy,but India is capable of fighting on two fronts,moreover our army has vast experience of fighting at high altitude which chinese don't have ....ultimately our forces will definitely win this battle for sure.

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  71. a very good and analytical one

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  72. Baltistan story is a different factor which is want not any politician known it is hide in Britishian and well description by him and main problems reater it's main reality.

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  73. Mostly we live in this world for 60-70 yrs

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  74. Anything just call me,I will help the three countries to solve the problems

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  75. Lucidly written sir. Thank you very much.

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  76. Thanks for providing this invaluable information in such an easy way... will save it for future use.👍👍👍

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  77. The analysis shows only the Chinese n paki dimention. Frankly if this is Chinese agenda Indian Army has got capability to hold all their plans and turn them upside down as In one hand Chinese has no experience of war in last 40 years specially in mountain warfare and in other hand paki's have been defeated four times by India.
    In a worst case situation it will turn a world war as the friend nations to India like the US,Japan, Australia, Isreal Russia etc will definately will not give a cake walk to China. Today china has more enemy nation n almost no Friend nation except Pakistan.
    I forse n beleive the Modi tectics that India has already worked the secrete streategy that may take back Aksai Chin, pok and even help Tibat get their freedom back from China ...if china looses this time..?

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  78. Very informative. Thanks for sharing.

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  79. Indians Only day dreaming to manipulate with some countries and create more confusion lies and create fake news and fake reporting as they always do but nothing is going to happened in Indians favour because as history ofIndia shows and tell us they are so confused and weakest nation on the planet.

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    1. Wait and watch. When it cools fown, POK will be part of India Baloochista and may be NF Frontier will be liberated

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    2. It is possible that in near future India may be having border clash with Iran.

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  80. In case of a war, USA, Germany, France, Japan, etc will join India and decimate China, Pak and they will disintegrate .

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  81. Just check the status of Pakistan Kashmir it's free and democratic and independent Kashmir government of Pakistan and indian Kashmir is the occupied region as it's in United nation charteracharter has declared disputed territory of India sooner or later India can't hold Kashmir occupied forever it's has to be freed from Indian occupation. currently the people of Kashmir are locked down and kerfewed around 12 months in their houses Kashmiris killing and arrest are on high stack by Modi hindutwa BJP government by almost 1 million Indian malitries look what Modi hindutwa BJP government doing to India they are distroing India big time. Most of Indian states are no longer to be part of India because Modi hindutwa BJP government is turning India to non Hindus hatrat conflict and crisis and Hindu racist killing and crisis are on high ground on daily basis it's going very fast of the distruction sinareo .

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    1. It is the right opertunity to take back POK, liberate Baloochistan and eliminate Pakistan.

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  82. No body trust begger and Communist.just shut up watch and see.

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  83. Have you seen the BBC documentary movie poping India you can find out the global Indian image of the world how you are Indians drinking pee and eating shit of your mother Cow

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    1. Yes we know you eat your owm mothers flesh. You

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    2. Yes you belive British Bullsjt Corporation than your mother.

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  84. The most of 80 % of the beggers in the world are also from Indian find out from Wikipedia

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    1. Wikipedia information is fed by some guys based on their assumptions. If you want to see real beggers go to Newyork Subway.

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  85. You Indians Only can have lollypop from Americans not any malitries assistance because the whole world knows the reality and capacity of Indians how confused weakest and untrustworthy nation they're and mumbled jumbled people with full of questions marks ???

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    1. That is why you are begging for Paracetamol from India. Shameless.

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  86. I broadly agree with author's perspective. The present conflict has more geopolitical strategies than that of a land grab. That said, most of the hype generated by media is false. 1. There is no conceivable way China could hold position South West of Himalayan range due to logistics. 2. Even in a limited mountain warfare they can't win present India due to geographic locations and possibilities of Indian forces disrupting their supply line through G504 high way. 3. International pressure as they are already in a soup due to covid19 and their multiple front effort is bouncing badly. 4. Logistically it is impossible for India to have sustainable invasion in Tibet nor china to invade South West and keep it. 5. Any disruption in Chinese logistics due to a limited war will create widespread unrest in Tibet and uighur region xingiang??.

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  87. Very thoughtful provoking article indeed. However, its unimaginable that Indian Armed Forces would be oblivious of such scenerio and doing sweet little to ignore at its peril. China cannot be frolicking in South China Sea with US and rest of world keeping its eye shut. Besides, globe has shrunk to a level where pain felt by one nation cannot remain in isolation while the dragon likes to spread its wings beyond a point given especially the adverse sentiment it has drawn from the world. It ofcourse is going to form newer alliances of the world joining hands with India especially Israel and US to thwart such misadventure.

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  88. Each and every citizen has to keep in mind that nation comes first rashtrahit sarvopare hai before our personal interest.

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  89. Writer's basic premise that Siachin threatens the Korakaram Highway is completely false. The highway is 100km away on the other side of K2 peak. How can it be threatened with machinegun fire from Siachin?
    Also Gilgit Chitral was always independent of Kashmir. It was captured by Sikhs, then transferred to Dogras in the Amrithsar treaty. As such they declared independence from Dogras in 1947, and elected to align with Pakistan.

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  90. Extremely informative and very well explained :) excellent insight! absolutely loved this blog. keep posting!

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  91. Very well explained in simple language with pictures to elaborate...is an eye opener.

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  92. Actually in 1959 chowenlai visited India and explained and told indian govt that Akshai chin will help them to reach Tibet easily from mainland China and it's not that useful for india and India can't reach easily Akshai chin because of Karakoram ranges so he offered a truce saying that they will never claim Arunchal pradesh if india stops claiming Akshai Chin , General Timmayya , Krishna Menon then Defence minister argued to make a truce ,ministers Morarji , Govindvallab panth and majority parliamentarins argued both belongs to india and put a condition that chineese should vacate Akshai Chin , Chineese claimed that as you inherited the land from British , China Communist party inherited lands from Quin Dynasty , British maps as per macmohan line Akshai chin belongs to india but those lines are not officially accepted by then chineese kings and Tibet was ruled autonomisly under chineese premier , after dissolution of Quin Dynsty Mao zedang integrated inner Mongolia and Tibet by oborting their status , talks went on between 59-62 hence war broke out , Chineese took Akshai Chin forcefully Nehru never ceeded it infact he fought and lost , that's why we still show Akshai chin in our maps , if nehru ceeded it then it will become official there no question of india govt showing it in our maps

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    1. Chineese took Akshai Chin forcefully Nehru never ceeded it infact he fought and lost , that's why we still show Akshai chin in our maps , if nehru ceeded it then it will become official there no question of india govt showing it in our maps,and Meghalaya not sharing border with China

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  93. One more Blunder in this blog that he is saying that india lost Tibet , Tibet is not part of British India so there is no question of loosing it as we didn't own it , China occupied or annexed Tibet in 1950-51 hence saying that india lost Tibet to Chineese in 62 war is nothing but a blind hate

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  94. Nehru even sheltered His holiness Dalai Lama and tibetian refugees gave them land in Himachal Pradesh and in Karnataka for settlement - some hyper active psudo nationalists wants a whip boy and they choose nehru , he got his own faults at the same time he did tremendous things to india and it's people , some people blindly hate him that too from last two decades obviously because of venomous political indoctrination

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  95. One more thing here Americans didn't help india in 1962 war , Nehru aked for 12 fighter planes From Kennedy , Kennedy is willing but that he was facing Cuban Missile crisis so help didn't come to india. Later it was reported thaat Mao Zedang thought of teaching a lesson to india forward policy in Himalayas Akshai Chin region and he want to keep dent on Nehru Image as leader of third world as Nehru is very active and in a way tall leader in Non alligned countries

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  96. Kishore why can't you try writing scripts for Telugu films than writing so many lies on the blog , tappu tammudu nija nijalu telusukoni raayali , telisi kooda inni tappulu rasavante sare kaani nee istam nee blog

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  97. Great Analysis and Conclusion.Both Pakistan and China are enemy for life and can never be trusted even in dreams Our intelligence has to be more vigilant and Ruling party should never be Congress

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  98. What would be the results of India China tussle # Pakistan will be erased from Map by India for Global peace and prosperity.

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  99. 1. Face china at the border. Our solders are more stronger in strength and moral.
    2. Face Pakis at the border and at the same tome attack on Paki main land and occupy POK. Mean time destroy Pakistan and liberate Baloochistan.

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  100. I am sorry to say this but who is this bastard who has said in his comments that Kashmir was never part of India. Such anti nationals should be shot immediately. I agree China's main pain is danger of PoK. If india captures PoK then it will be disaster for China.

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  101. The solution for India and the rest of the free world( Europe and Australia etc). With US direct help and Russia's " support", instead of China and Pakistan attacking India from both sides, India should immediately enter and reclaim POK region which will start a war with Pakistan. If China interferes , which they should, US and the rest of the free world should join in to support India against China with economic and military blockade of its ports and if push comes to shove then direct use of navy and air force. It will be almost a world war 3 for sure. The final result - Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan will become free. Rest of China will break up into smaller countries . The Muslims in China will be set free. Philipines, Vietnam , Bhutan and Nepal will heave a sigh of relief and Pakistan will loose Balochistan and India will get the lost part of Kashmir. Too much to gain vs loss. This new peace era should last for the next 5O years until another tyrant appears on the scene.

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  102. Wow. Very deep study n well projected Chinese cunning strategy. India is fully prepared to give befitting reply in case China tries any misadventure. Pakistan is not ready for any misadventure at this stage. Their regular army is too corrupt n defunct. Only mujahid fight for Pakistan.. I think China is just cking Indian reaction n take action if we r found weak... But our leadership has turned 180 degrees from mak defensive to calculated agression.
    They will not try any misadventure specifically when entire world is against them. And this will put Pakistan out of favored nation from US n other countries in relation to arm support

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  103. Not so simple. Other World powers will not allow weakening of India.
    2nd biggest Arms importer in the world.
    A clear axis has emerged:
    China-Pakistan-Qatar-UAE-Saudi.

    This has to be countered:
    QUAD + Israel + France

    Things are realigning every day.

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  104. Everybody here is saying that it is very clear to them what porkis & Chinki eyes are upto! But will you all indians stand up & fight? Will you take arms in your hands & fight? We indians here need to be united by this reality not just saying oh bro! You cleared the things by explaning this matter,it is clear as water what these two of our worst enemies are upto! Wake up & fight

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  105. Hi Kishor, Very nice article. It explains all the events that have lead to the current situation. I just wanted to point out that all news outlets and articles keep stating about our situation in 1962 but not many of our people are aware of the 1967 short war in which we did push back the chinese troops while they tried to intrude into our territory. This was because our military troops and their capabilities were drastically strengthened post the 1962 debacle. We continued to show our military strength in 1971 to liberate bangladesh from Pakistan. Almost 93000 paki war prisoners were released as a good will gesture. You must be aware of this but just wanted to bring this up.

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  106. All these are the propaganda from Pakistan and Chinese media. We are having army, airforce and navy to decide the course of action and every Indian are proud of our army, airforce and navy. Let them decide the strategy to fight the Pakistan and China

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  107. Anti nationals need to be watched .India will do the unexpected ,we have CHANAKYA .

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  108. aksai chin is India's part and also a Tibet. We shall try to get this too along with POK. India need to be aggressive and stop being defensive this time. Start saying tibet, Aksai and POk all is Indian parts and we shall take it.

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  109. Very nice analysis.Leave the few jinake bil me garam tail pr gaya he

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  110. First of all, all 'unknown's should come out with actual names. Only those who are doubtful about their linage operate withiut name.

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  111. Wonderful analysis. Do read my articles on similar lines at insightful.co.in
    Warm regards.

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  112. If the real aim of China is to gain strategic depth for it's trade route through Pakistan, it's best bet would have been to broker a peace between India and Pakistan on Kashmir. Converting the current loc to international Border. It would have served the Chinese purpose without having to fire a shot and would have given them more trade opportunities.Further if Chinese cud settke border dispute with India, it will prevent India from going along with USA and India would also have refrained from commenting adversely on any Chinese related issues. So if the aim of Chinese is as stated by author then they have clearly misread the situation and has no grasp of real politic

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  113. Yes! this is all what the experts are discussing by many ways.
    Above all,now,what the Modi govt alongwith the defence and NSA are doing is the best till now in the best interest of our nation & the whole world.

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  114. I feel our nation in the best of hands. They don't reveal but are aware of sinister plans.
    Jai Hind

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  115. Good narrative, happy to read varied comments

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  116. should india involve usa in planning four front war .

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  117. This may be one of the option, but difficult to implement.
    The first map shown above shows J and K as administered by bith, whereas it should be shown as India with POK marked

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  118. Dear Kishore ,
    Very well written & explained .
    Thanks

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  119. Wonderful analysis. 70 years of India's blunder, we are facing the heat now. However, it is great achievement for India that in 1984 it occupied Siachin Glacier.
    However now the main thrust on India is to get back POK with international support. I think Modi is working towards this direction only.

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  120. If Pakistan and China try to cut off Siachen from India there could be bloody war and Pakistan may disintegrate.Chinese will be left with no option other than compromising with India.

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  121. India must attack chinese dams by which they are controlling many countries and making them dry and cry. And their days are counted now. Including Pak which is on natural death phase

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  122. If I were to sumup this article,in short it means that India loses on all count and surrender.Give some credence to India of 2020 and wish the article was balanced with some positive points of view.Thanks to China for giving us a wake-up call.Pakistan is digging it's own grave out of desperation.Let us not forget there are other powers to settle their score and here is an opportunity to place China where it ought to be.

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  123. In today's economy driven political scenario, world will not allow two Nuclear power nation to attack another nuclear power nation.......

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  124. The stupid fellow denying Kashmir was part of India, must know, isreal, Afghanistan, Pak, Tibet, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, mynmar, etc are part of india

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  125. Reality shown in this article let's see how our political system will react.our army needs preparation a e upgradation to achieve the success.

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