Friday, October 30, 2020

26/11 And "Myth of Saffron Terrorism" - Part Two

26/11 And "Myth of Saffron Terrorism" - Part Two

Happenings Before 26/11 .... Continued from Part 1

In early November 2008, that is just before 26/11, certain important happenings took place as a part of "Operation Saffron Terrorism". The Mumbai ATS arrested Lt. Col. Purohit in connection with the Malegoan blast. They arrested him under the charges that he was a member of a Hindu extremist organization named Abhinav Bharat, he attended the their meetings and supplied RDX for the Malegoan blast.

It is very important to understand details of Lt. Col. Purohit's arrest because it is closely linked with 26/11 attacks. 

Before we understand the link between Lt. Col. Purohit's arrest by ATS and 26/11 attacks, let's understand who is Lt. Col. Purohit? Why a working army officer was arrested in charges of terrorism? How he was arrested? How he was treated during interrogation? What charges were filed against him etc.

Lt. Col. Purohit....

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Who is Lt. Col. Purohit?
Lt. Col. Purohit is an army decorated officer who was working in Military Intelligence (Popularly known as MI). The purpose of MI is to gather intelligence within the country and outside the country, analyze threat perception and neutralize them. As we can see this is a very sensitive department where only select few get a chance to work after thorough background check.

Officers working in this department often have to go deep undercover and work with dangerous people to gather intelligence. This is very risky, a small mistake can blow up their cover and get them killed. In their world there is nothing like black and white, or good or bad, everything is in the shades of gray. Undercover officers may have to cross the line sometimes, to earn the trust from the bad people, but they do it for the country. These officers sometimes have no contact with their families for months. All the communication between the undercover and his/her family is managed by the military. The job is tough but Lt. Col. Purohit was doing it for the country.

How was Lt. Col. Purohit arrested by Mumbai ATS?

Arresting a military personnel by a civilian police officer is not that easy. Police cannot arrest military personnel like any other civilian. They have to follow certain procedures to arrest. 

If the military person is involved in some criminal activity outside the military camp and found on the crime site then local police can take him into the custody but have to inform the military establishment within a stipulated time period (I am not sure but it is within 48 hours). If the military personnel is not found on site but police wants to arrest that person then they have to apply to the military establishment and Military Police handover that person to the civilian police. 

In Lt. Col. Purohit's case none of these procedures were followed. Lt. Col. Purohit himself has narrated how he was arrested by Mumbai ATS in his written complaint in 2013 to the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), to the then Prime Minister of India and to the then President of India. Then Indian PM and President never replied to his complaint and NHRC is still investigating the complaint even after 6 years! Copy of his complaint is in the public domain for last so many years but still no one has taken any objection to what 
Lt. Col. Purohit said or challenged his complaint in the court. which means what he has said, must be true. This letter is attached in this article for your review.

During the last week of October 2008, Lt. Col. Purohit was taking a training at Panchmadhi in MP, when his superior, Col. R. K. Shrivastava went there personally and issued Travel Order to him to go to New Delhi for some urgent work. Colonel Shrivastava was to accompany him to New Delhi on 29th October 2008. On the way to the Bhopal airport, Colonel Strivastava took cellphone from Lt. Col. Purohit and did not show him his air tickets too. After checkin at the airport, Colonel Srivastava told Lt. Col. Purohit that they are going to Mumbai and not to New Delhi. After hearing this, Lt. Col. Purohit  asked for his cell phone so that he can inform his wife but Colonel Shrivastava did not give the cell phone.

Now, as per the military procedure, if the travel plan is changed then a new Travel Order has to be issued but no new Travel Order was given to Lt. Col. Purohit. The question is, why Colonel Shrivastava did not follow the military procedure? Why Lt. Col. Purohit was given a Travel Order to go to New Delhi but then secretly taken to Mumbai? If Mumbai ATS wanted to interrogate/ arrest Lt. Col. Purohit then why they did not make a formal request to military establishment to handover Lt. Col. Purohit? It is very evident that Colonel Shrivastava did not follow official military rules, which means Lt. Col. Purohit was arrested ILLEGALLY. 

After Reaching Mumbai airport late in the evening, Lt. Col. Purohit was hurriedly pushed into a private vehicle and taken to a private bungalow in Khandala (a place between Mumbai and Pune). Till he reached Khandala, Lt. Col. Purohit had no clue what was happening with him. He was received by Mumbai ATS chief Hemant Karkare, Dy. ATS Chief Parambir Singh and other ATS officers in the bungalow.They tortured him for next NINE days and on 8th November 2008 they formally announced his arrest. This means, Lt. Col. Purohit was ILLEGALLY detained for NINE days by the Mumbai ATS.

Inhuman torture....

During these first nine days, the ATS team headed by Hemant Karkare gave worst than 3rd degree treatment to Lt. Col. Purohit. He was beaten up so badly that his several bones bones were broken, his ligaments were ruptured. Lt. Col. Purohit had told ATS officers that he had a knee surgery earlier and doctors have put steel plate in his leg and stretching his legs in 180 degrees would create serious injury but still they enjoyed doing it, resulting in severe injury. There are lot of graphic details that Lt. Col. Purohit has given in the letter that he wrote to the then Prime Minister of India. I am not sharing these details here because they are very graphic, violent and disgusting. But I am attaching the link of this letter in this article and interested readers can read at it at their own discretion.

The Mumbai ATS team lead by Hemant Karkare did not stop by torturing Lt. Col. Purohit  physically. At one of of time, Karkare, his deputy Parambir Singh and Col. Shrivastava talked about arresting his mother, wife and sister and parading them naked in front of everyone!

ATS was doing all this torture and psychological pressure on Lt. Col. Purohit to make him accept his role in Malegoan bombing forcefully. But Lt. Col. Purohit did not agree to sign the confession and hence the torture continued. 

After the initial police remand, when Lt. Col. Purohit was produced before the magistrate for extending the police custody. He informed the court about the torture and complained to the court with the names of the officers who tortured him. As a result, court ordered a medical exam in the military hospital. The medical exam reports confirmed the torture and hence court did not grant police custody but gave a judicial custody. 

If these torture charges are true then it shows the indecency of Hemant Karkare, Parambir Singh and Col. Shrivastava. Karkare and his team behaved worst than an animal while dealing with a decorated military officer. It is really shameful behavior for an educated senior IPS officer. This is said, only with the underlining belief that the torture charges are true. The other side has neither challenged Lt. Col. Purohit's torture charges nor they have put out their side of story hence I will go with what is said by Lt. Col Purohit.

Please see the video of Lt. Col. Purohit's wife narrating how he was tortured.

Please see the video of the Lt. Col. Purohit's letter.




Please read the full handwritten letter that Lt. Col. Purohit wrote in Dec 2013 to the NHRC, then Prime Minister of India and then president of India. PMO did not even acknowledge, receiving this letter!

Warning - This letter has very graphic description of the torture, which some of you may not feel comfortable to read. Hence read this letter at your discretion. 
If these allegations are indeed true then I don't know what Karkare was thinking when he tortured a decorated army officer, in an inhuman way.  Did he think he was untouchable because of his links with the political leaders?

But Karma acts with its own justice. Within a month after arresting Lt. Col. Purohit, Hemant Karkare was killed by Pakistani terrorists on the night of 26/11. Not convinced about his death, his wife, Ms. Kavita started asking pointed questions about her husband's death but no one in the police department, government or politicians bothered to answer her questions. She was running from pillar to post but no one helped. 

This was exactly how Lt. Col. Purohit's wife Ms. Aparna was running around, just a month earlier,  asking questions about her husband after he was arrested by Karkare. She too was running from pillar to post wanting to know why her husband was arrested, where was he kept, what charges were filed etc but no one bothered to answer her. Sometimes Karma returns the punishment too quickly. 

Please see the comments from Ms. Kavita Karkare about her husbands death.

There are many rumors as why Lt. Col. Purohit was made a scapegoat in this case. I cannot confirm any of these rumors because there is no corroborating information to support these claims. Hence I cannot say for sure, why Lt. Col. Purohit was picked up as a fall guy?


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What happened to Lt. Col. Purohit after the arrest?

Mumbai ATS started collecting evidence against Lt. Col. Purohit. They raided a house in Deolali near Nashik and claimed that they recovered military grade RDX explosives from this house, which was stocked by Lt. Col Purohit

Mumbai ATS initially claimed that the quantity seized in this house was stolen by Lt. Col. Purohit from the military stock. This was proved wrong because Indian military does not use this type of RDX for its use and a result they have no stock. 

When this story fell apart, then they came up with another story. The story was, few months earlier, large quantity of RDX was seized during a raid in J&K. Lt. Col. Purohit was part of that raid and he walked away with 60 Kgs of RDX from that seizure and part of that quantity was used in the Malegoan blast.  

This claim too fell apart because military later confirmed that all the quantity seized from the J&K raid was fully accounted for and it is safely stored with military. No quantity was stolen. In fact, military's internal inquiry proved that Lt. Col. was not an authorized person to handle RDX from the raid site and he was no where near that raid site. Please see the reports below where military confirmed this in the court.




Later in 2011when the investigation was transferred to NIA, they too found no truth in stolen RDX story.

But the quantity seized by Mumbai ATS was indeed a military grade RDX. If this was not stolen from the military stock  or from raid then where did it come from? How Mumbai ATS got hold of this dangerous material? This should have been inquired but never investigated.

Another important point to understand. Lt. Col. Purohit is a trained military officer who knows what RDX is. Do you think he would stock it in a house where there is a thick population around and lots of families staying nearby? Though RDX is not explosive in normal stocking conditions and it requires very high grade spark to ignite (Improvised Explosive Devise or IED) but still a small mishap could have killed hundreds of innocent people. Do you think a trained military officer can take this risk? Hence ATS claim looks absurd. 


Why Supreme Court grated bail to Lt. Col Purohit?

Government had pressed MCOCA (Maharashtra Control of Organized Crime Act) charges on Lt. Col. Purohit. This is a very stringent act in Maharashtra to control organized crime. A person booked under this charge can be kept in the jail infinitely without filing the charges and without a possibility of bail. 

As per the provision, MCOCA can be applied only to those people who are repeat offender in the organized crimes. Lt. Col. Purohit was not arrested earlier for any organized crime hence MCOCA charges  would have fallen apart in the lower court itself. Hence ATS and later NIA went out of their way to show Lt. Col. Purohit was involved in the Samjhauta express bombing too. They tried to collect evidence against Lt. Col. Purohit but they were not successful. 

Lt. Col. Purohit tried to get MCOCA lifted but not successful even in Mumbai High Court. The SCI looked at the evidences, talked to the whiteness and found no merit in applying MCOCA. This was the big relief to Lt. Col. Purohit because MCOCA was not allowing him to get bail. Here are the details of SCI verdict. 

Later a bail application was moved and SCI found that ATS and NIA had not filed even the formal charge sheet even after nine years! SCI talked to the witnesses and they told that they were beaten up and threatened by ATS to give the false statements earlier. Plus NIA had not submitted any formidable evidence to prove Lt. Col. Purohit's guilt. The RDX story too fell apart. The MCOCA was already removed and other charges filed were of minor nature. These minor charges attracted maximum of seven years punishment but Lt. Col. Purohit had already spent 9 years in jail. Hence SCI ultimately granted bail to him on 23rd August 2017.

When Lt. Col. Purohit got the bail in 2017, BJP government was in power at center as well as in the Maharashtra state. Hence some "Educated Delhi Khan Market Lutyens" came up with a brilliant theory that the BJP government influenced NIA to weaken the case so that Lt. Col. Purohit can get the bail!

Well, look at the time line. Lt. Col. Purohit was arrested in 2008 when there was a congress government at the center as well as in Maharashtra. This congress party government remained in power till 2014. which means they were in power for 6 years after Lt. Col. Purohit was arrested. Then why ATS and NIA could not gather evidences in those 6 years and file charges against Lt. Col. Purohit? Who had stopped them? If they had produced evidence in the court then no government would have been able to influence the court case. 

Please see the article below to understand why SCI granted bail to Lt. Col. Purohit.

Few more reference material...





How military treated Lt. Col. Purohit after was released on bail?


Military had conducted its internal inquiry about the charges on Lt. Col. Purohit. Though this report was not published but sources indicate, military probed all the charges like whether Lt. Col. Purohit had kept his superiors and the office of MI informed about his association with Abhinav Bharat, did he file the reports and did he kept his team members informed about his activities. The military establishment also probed, the charges of steeling RDX from the seized explosives from J&K. This also proved wrong and military gave a statement to this effect in the court.

When Lt. Col. Purohit was released on bail from Taloja jail, military made extensive security arrangements to take out Lt. Col. Purohit in full protection. He was taken to the military's Colaba base in Mumbai and was given back his rank. He is not yet assigned to any active duty because of pending court case. 

The natural question that comes to mind is, if military had found Lt. Col. Purohit guilty in its internal inquiry then why would they make provisions to take him out in full protection and give back his rank? If military had found him guilty then they too could have arrested him and court marshaled him. 

It is rumored that military was paying full salary to his family when he was in jail for nine years. But that is not confirmed hence I will not say anything about it.

If military did not find Lt. Col. Purohit guilty in its internal inquiry then the logical conclusion could be, the cases filed by Maharashtra ATS and NIA are false. 

Please see the video of how military made huge arrangements to take custody of Lt. Col. Purohit when he was released on bail from Taloja jail.





Now, let's come back to the question of How Lt. Col. Purohit's arrest is linked to 26/11 attacks?

I will explain the same points, explained in the Part One earlier to establish link. Let's understand the timelines...


8th September 2006 - Malegoan bomb blast



18th February 2007 - Samjhauta Express bombing

6th March 2007 - Illegal Pakistani national Kazmi arrested in Punjab for Samjhauta express bombing. His description matched with the person who was seen planting bomb in the Samjhauta Express.


20th March 2007 - While local police were still investigating the case, Kazmi was released by the court on the disposition given by a senior IPS officer, that Kazmi was innocent, police did not find any evidence of his involvement and must be released! He was released in just 14 days and was not even booked for illegal residency of a Pakistani national in India. He vanished from the radar without a trace.

Till March 2008 - All Home Ministry reports suggest involvement of SIMI and some other Pakistani groups in these two bombings.

26th March 2008 - SIMI chief Safdar Nagari was arrested and during a NARCO testing, he confirms that the Samjhauta express bombing and Malegoan city bombings were done by JeM, LeT and SIMI.He did not mention name/s
of any Hindu person or the organization during the testing. But in spite of having this clear information, investigating agencies never inquired about what Nagari said.

Note - Till March 2008, Home Ministry was believing that these two bomb blasts
was the work of Pakistani LeT and SIMI.

8th November 2008 - Maharashtra government arrest Colonel Purohit for his role in Malegoan blasts. UPA government coins the term “Saffron Terrorism” for the first time and start widespread publicity campaign.

Between 8th Nov 2008 and 26/11 - Senior UPAministers gave repeated public statements
accusing Hindu extremists groups inbombing Samjhauta Express and city of Malegoan. They portrayed the arrest of Lt. Col. Purohit and couple of Hindu activists as the part of "Saffron Terrorism". The term "Saffron Terrorism" obtained large spread publicity and every Indian was shocked to hear this.

AND WITHIN A MONTH AFTER THE ARRESTS, THE 26/11 HAPPENS…..
ALL THE TEN PAKISTANI TERRORISTS WERE WEARING SAFFRON THREADS ON THEIR WRISTS TO SHOW THEY WERE HINDUS AND ALL OF THEM HAD FAKE IDENTITY CARDS WITH HINDU NAMES. 

ARE YOU FINDING THE CONNECTING LINK BETWEEN GOVERNMENT COINING THE TERM “SAFFRON TERRORISM”, ARREST OF LT. COL. PUROHIT AND 26/11 ATTACKS? THIS ALL HAPPENED WITHIN A SPAN OF JUST ONE MONTH.


In the next part; Part Three, we will see WHAT HAPPENED DURING 26/11 ATTACKS?what government said happened on 26/11 and what was the ground reality. We will also explain lots of unknown details that you might have never known.

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Monday, August 31, 2020

What China Might Be Actually Aiming For?

What China Might Be Aiming For In Ladakh?

The tensions on Indo-China border is increasing day by day. Both armies are facing eyeball to eyeball. They are backed with infantry, tanks, armored vehicles and air defense. It is not at all a good situation to face both the militaries in a combat ready mode. Defense experts have rightly pointed out that a small local angry incidence can flareup the battleground.

But the question is, why China is picking up this quarrel with India, knowing it will be very difficult to grab any more disputed land on LAC using force. 2020 India is not 1962 India to be humiliated. Indian armed forces are very well prepared to give a befitting answer to China.

China is also facing hostile situation on its South and South East side. American aircraft carriers are patrolling South China sea. China is having a big problem going on in Hong Kong plus it has picked up fight with Taiwan. Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam. They too are rattled with China's expansionary policy. 

When China is having problems on all its borders then why is it showing hostile posture with India? If the conflict really breaks out then China has more to lose than India. China has already earned bad reputation due to Chinese Virus (COVID19) and a war with India will isolate China internationally.

This is important to note, after 1962 war till now, China had highlighted border disputes on the North East border of India. They have raised objection about Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalay and Sikkim. They have never picked up a border dispute in the plains of Ladakh after 1962. But now they are picking up a fight in Ladakh....WHY?

Challenges on the of J&K border

Before we analyze WHY China is picking up fight in Ladakh, let's first understand how the map has changed since 1947 between India, Pakistan and China in the Jammu & Kashmir region.



Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK)


in 1947 entire princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was part of India. This included Jammu, Kashmir valley, Ladakh, Gilgit Baltistan and Aksai Chin regions.

When Pakistan attacked India in 1947 and illegally occupied part of Kashmir, they snatched two parts of J& K, that is, very small portion of Kashmir valley and big mass of land of Gilgit Baltistan. India was left with Jammu, remaining part of Kashmir valley, Ladakh and Aksai Chin regions. The area marked as "Pakistan Administered Kashmir" is what Pakistan forcefully occupied in 1947.

Illegal occupation Aksai Chin 


Then in 1950 China started building a road inside Aksai Chin w/o India's permission. They wanted to grab Tibet and access to Tibet from mainland China is very difficult due to mountain ranges. Hence they started illegally occupying Aksai Chin to build roads to go to Tibet. This construction activity started in 1950, but was never detected by Indian military till 1957. 

By the time it was detected, it was too late and Nehru ceded Aksai Chin to China saying, that land is useless because it is a cold desert and cannot grow even a single leaf of grass! But obviously Nehru missed the geographic importance of Aksai Chin. He surrendered to the Chinese bullying. He thought, his socialistic ideologue friend China would stop by taking Aksai Chin. But that was not China's aim. They wanted Tibet and that is why they occupied Aksai Chin. 

China's forceful occupation of Tibet


Nehru realized China's real intentions when China attacked Tibet, but by then it was very late. In 1962 India was dragged into a  war with China without military preparation. Nehru was not a firm, resolute and dynamic leader to lead this war. This fact has recorded by number of military experts and diplomatic experts. The moment he realized well prepared Chinese military is getting heavy on ill prepared Indian military, he started giving conflicting signals to the Indian military. As a result, Indian military faced heavy human losses and this demoralized the military. The situation was so grim that Chinese forces were about to enter Assam and Nehru had mentally accepted to give away Assam to stop Chinese forces. 

By that time US had sent its forces to support India. China was aware about it and thus unilaterally declared ceasefire before US forces could reach India. They retained the hold on Tibet but vacated other captured parts of India. India was  defeated and humiliated by China in the war. As a result, India lost Aksai Chin and Tibet, both. 

Pakistan's gift of Shaksam Valley to China


After 1962 China war, Pakistan became more closer to China. Pakistan was always fearing that, one day or the other India will attack Kashmir Valley and reclaim PoK. To mitigate this risk, in 1963 Pakistan donated part of Kashmir to China. This part is marked in the map as "Shaksam Valley". Pakistan thought that if China is made party into the Kashmir dispute then India cannot do anything as India cannot challenge China!!! This is how, China got foothold in Kashmir valley.

Strategic Importance of Siachin Glacier


If you see the map, there is a very small triangular portion that is between Shaksam Valley and Aksai Chin. This is Siachin Glacier. This small portion of Siachin Glacier is separating two Chinese illegal occupation, that is, Askai Chin and Shaksam Valley. If Siachin Glacier peaks are occupied either by China or by Pakistan then Kashmir valley would firmly connect with China mainland.

It is strategically so important that the whoever controls the peaks of Siachin Glacier, they would practically control activities happening in mainland China, Aksai Chin, Shaksam Valley and Pakistan's PoK. 

The Karokoram highway that connects China with Pakistan through road, passed through Siachin Glacier. Karakoram pass, which is one of the oldest trade route is also in the same region. The Karakoram Highway is so close to the Siachin Glacier peaks that normal machine gun fire can block the road. Hence it is a big threat to China and Pakistan. 

Siachin Glacier is a very inhabitable, mountainous and rugged terrine, where living is not possible. This area is always covered with snow, freezing temperatures less than -30 degree Celsius, unpredictable winter storms and huge avalanches.  Due to these reasons, no one between Pakistan, China and India had claimed this region till 1984. It was practically no man's land because all parties thought, it is impossible hold on to the occupation.

But this changed in 1984 when India captured Siachin Glacier and fortified it's military position. After capturing, India fought number of battles with Pakistani army who tried to capture it back but they failed. Since then, Siachin Glacier is firmly controlled by Indian Army. Pakistani still wants to capture this region for the obvious strategic importance. 

India has not only fortified all the mountain top ranges in the Siachin Glacier but even made the Daulat Beg Oldie Air Force base fully operational. This base is situated at 5.1 Kilo Meters height and temperatures are below -30 degree Celsius. Please see the map of Daulat Beg Oldie base to understand its strategic importance.

It is located at a very strategic point to cover China occupied Shaksam Valley, Aksai Chin, Mainland China and Pakistan occupied POK. From this air field Indian Air Force can attack deep inside Pakistan and China. The only challenge is, because of the height, IAF fighter planes have some limitations on carrying fuel and weapons. But that is a different topic to discuss. 


China's financial interests in this region...

China had built Karakoram highway long back to connect Pakistan with China by road. This is their old trade route but it is very long and treacherous route. Plus it was not connecting to any seaports in Pakistan.

China's crude oil supply from Arab countries and Africa is through oil tankers that travel from Arabian Sea, circling Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Indonesia, then into South China Sea and finally into China.

As you can see this route is very long and expensive to get crude oil into China. It is also expensive and time consuming to supply Chinese goods to the West Asia.  Every country needs cheap oil for its economic growth. High transportation cost for oil was hampering China's economic growth plans. Hence they came up with Silk Routes and One Belt One Way policy. This plan is to connect 70 countries for the trade purpose.

As a part of this policy, China started China Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC initiative. Under this plan, China developed port of Gawader in Pakistan for oil pumping. Then created multiple highways inside Pakistan to link East, Central and West Pakistan. All these highways lead to one highway into Gilgit Baltistan. The plan is, get oil from Arab countries in tankers to Gawadar port and transport it to China using CPEC road. The bigger plan is to create pipelines from Gawadar port till China along the CPEC road.

Please see the map below to understand CPEC route and its use of Gilgit Baltistan.



China has invested more than 80 Billion dollars of its own money plus given 50 Billion dollars loan to Pakistan. This huge investment has so far not given tangible results to China due to variety of reasons. Hence China is risking losing 140 Billion dollars investment plus loss of opportunity.

On top of it, India has protested with China and Pakistan for illegally using Gilgit Baltistan area for CPEC. This is because, India claims entire princely state of J&K that joined India in 1947, is legally owned by it. India plans to reclaim this illegally occupied land from Pakistan and China.

And...this is where the current problem is.

China's fear...

China is fearing, if India really reclaims Kashmir Valley, Gilgit Baltistan from Pakistan and reclaims Shaksham Valley and Aksai Chin from China then it will be a big jolt for China's CPEC plans.

It will be cut off from Pakistan completely and thereby with Arab countries and African countries. This will disrupt their oil supply and goods trade route with West Asia. And on top of it, if India blocks sea route for Chinese ships in Arabian Sea then it will face huge problem.

It is because of this fear, China is showing aggression in Ladakh. China and Pakistan feels that if India is challenged on two fronts then India will not dare to reclaim POK and Gilgit Baltistan. They both want to grab more land of India so that their CPEC road connection is not threatened.

China and Pakistan's Military Game Plan...

Look at the map where there is a current military conflict with China in Ladakh region.


The current conflict sites are;
1) Galwan Valley
2) Hot Springs
3) Pangong Lake

My estimate is, these hot spots are just the decoy. China and Pakistan wants India to look some other way so that they can achieve their goal.

I strongly think, the plan is something like this. 
Pakistan and China wants to capture some more land of Ladakh, cut off Siachin Glacier and create a rock solid, wide connection between China and Pakistan. 

Please see the map below to understand what may happen.



The military plan of China and Pakistan might be as follows.

Pakistan will attack Ladakh from Gilgit Baltistan.

China will attack Ladakh from Aksai Chin.

Both these forces would capture the portion of Ladakh; that could be in one of the three ways shown above (depicted in three colors).

The aim would be to cut off Siachin Glacier from India thereby ending India's threat to China, Pakistan and CPEC from the peaks of Siachin Glacier.

Grabbing the land around Siachin Glacier would join Pakistan with China with solid mass of land and then, India cannot threaten Pakistan to reclaim PoK and Gilgit Baltistan. 

This is the reason why Pakistan has moved its infantry in Gilgit Baltistan region instead of PoK. This is the reason why China is not ready to take back its forces from the three hot spots.

China may agree on the negotiating table to take back its forces from the three hot spots but in reality it will never pull back. China is known for such treacherous behavior and should never be trusted. They played the same game of negotiations with India in 1962. This time too, they will attack India when both Pakistan and China are ready to attack. Till then China will continue to come to the negotiating table with a statement for "peace".

Conclusion....

India must be prepared to fight a big bloody war with China and Pakistan simultaneously. 

China may open another front in the North East region of India to stretch India's fighting forces.

Pakistan may open another front on India's western border to further stretch Indian forces.

Pakistan may try to infiltrate terrorists in Kashmir Valley and start internal disturbances.


The war may start by August, September  and take a very dirty turn. As they say, you can decide when to start the war but you cannot decide when to stop. Hence end date is not known.

Indians must get prepared...