Real Reason Why Pakistan Is Rattled To The Core Because of Abolishing Of Article 370?

The recent unparliamentary statements from Pakistani leadership, right from Imran Khan, Army Chief Bajwa till local body leaders from Pakistan shows Pakistan is rattled, threatened and feeling the real heat because of scrapping of article 370.

On the surface of it it appears, by abolishing article 370, India has unilaterally decided that J&K is no more a disputed territory. Now Pakistan is worried that, J&K which is their struggle for the whole life, and an icon for Pakistan's existence, is wiped out. They also fear that, India by abolishing article 370 has unilaterally converted LOC into defacto international border. 

But is it the only reason why Pakistan is giving statements of extremity, insanity? They are literally threatening the world by saying, if article 370 is not reinstated then there will be a nuclear war.

The question is, why Pakistan should be worried so much about article 370? After all, it was just an administrative correction from Indian side. It was needed to bring equality, parity amongst the population and open new avenues of prosperity. Nothing changed at the ground level for Pakistan. Still they could call it a disputed territory, still they could claim Kashmir as their own and still they could infiltrate terrorists in J&K.   

Then Why Pakistan is So rattled?

The real reason is as follows. Pakistan knows, scrapping article 370 was needed to correct the problems within India but it is not the India's final solution. India will not stop at this. They will capture PoK to integrate entire J&K and that will be the final solution. The prospect of losing PoK is what rattling Pakistan.

But why Pakistan should be worried unnecessarily on this possibility? After all they have an active army of 6.5 million and NUCLEAR capability to protect Pakistan's territorial interests. Pakistan has always used Nuclear capability as a deterrent for lot of bad actions in the past. Pakistan will never give up PoK without a fight and possible use of nuclear warheads. Then why this rhetoric of threats?  

Pakistan is feeling the heat because of couple of reasons.

1) Pakistan's weak economy will not allow Pakistan to fight a conventional war with India for more than 7 days. After that Pakistan's defeat is certain.

2) To counter that, nuclear war is the option but Pakistan knows, nuclear weapons are just a deterrent. They can showcase them as a deterrent but cannot use them. If they use them, then they will be wiped out physically and logically. Hence that is not a real option.

3) International pressure - Pakistan's International standing is so weak that no country in the world except China is ready to stand in support of Pakistan. In recent days, Pakistan did try to internationalize the Kashmir issue but failed miserably because no one except China supported it. China's support is because of CPEC project, which it wants to protect. I will touch upon this point later.

This international apathy for Pakistan and Kashmir is what really rattling Pakistan.

Let's understand how international body is thinking?

US wants to get out of Afghanistan ASAP. They are negotiating with Taliban for the transfer of power after September 2019 elections. But Afghanis and Indians don't want Taliban to take over power because it will again start violence, instability and terrorism in South Asia. Plus Taliban's
rule in Afghanistan will be an "advantage Pakistan". Pakistan will use Afghanistan as a backyard to
train terrorists and situation like 2001 will reemerge. And nobody, including US wants that to happen. 

Then what is the option? The option is, India needs to play an active role in supporting Afghani government to stabilize. US also wants India to play a stabilizer role because it is in close proximity of Afghanistan as compared to the US main land. But to play active role in Afghanistan, India needs direct access to Afghanistan. 

Today, all modes of access to Afghanistan goes through either Pakistan or Iran. India cannot ask Iran to provide safe route for the Indian military to enter into Afghanistan because of strained relations between US and Iran, and Pakistan will never allow Indian air force planes to fly over its territory. If India cannot get a safe passage to transport men, machinery and supplies then it cannot operate in Afghanistan.

This is where the permanent solution of PoK comes into play. Please see the attached map below.

The above map shows, the only entry point from India to Afghanistan is through PoK. That is why PoK is strategically so important.

If India integrates PoK with rest of the Kashmir then India can get direct Road access to Afghanistan. India can use this route to sustain its mission in Afghanistan and provide stability.

US will agree for this plan and drum up support from other western countries. This has lot more strategic value than just stabilizing Afghanistan.

1) India will get direct access to central asian markets via road, which will improve trade and commerce.

2) US in future, need not depend on Pakistan's strategic geographical position to access Afghanistan and Central Asia. They need not pay ransom money to Pakistani generals for keeping the transportation routes open. India will be a reliable and friendly country to deal with. Russia too will support this because they too don't want Taliban to come back. 

3) US will use "Unified J&K" as a counter measure to keep China under check. This action will affect China's expansion plans in South and Central Asia. The big danger here is China's reputation as a  "Loan Shark". They give loans to the smaller countries for developing infrastructure but when these small countries cannot repay the loan then they ask that land for themselves. China has done same thing in Sri Lanka and taken over entire port. If Pakistan cannot replay China's loan then same thing will happen with Pakistan's CPEC project. If Pakistan gives CPEC area to China then that would be disastrous because then China will get direct road access to Iran, which US don't want at all to happen.

Hence there is a good chance that US will support India to integrate PoK with J&K. Pakistani leadership knows this may happen and that is why they are so worried to save PoK. India is also making it clear that PoK belongs to India. Indian leadership has recently made number of such statements saying, PoK belongs to India.

What will Pakistan do if India takes a military action in PoK? 

Pakistan will fight back, there will be collateral damage and Pakistan will lose PoK. But it will not go for a nuclear war because US will assure Pakistan that if Pakistan backs off then US will get them World Bank loan to rebuild the economy. They will offer other incentives to Pakistan to let go PoK. Pakistan will accept it because the other route is total destruction of the country.

What will China do if India takes PoK?

China will have major problem for CPEC investments because a big portion goes through PoK. Please see the map below. CPEC going through PoK is marked with Blue color.

China may threaten to open another front on the eastern side but will not do so because of US pressure. If they open another front with India then that will start a very big war and lot of countries will get involved in it. Hence chances of China opening another front with India are remote.

Instead, China and India can made a deal, ahead of time to protect CPEC route in PoK, India can sign a contract with China to protect China's investment! China will welcome this because its huge investments in CPEC would be protected and it would be mutually beneficial for both the countries. Hence I don't think China will go into confrontation mode. This is visible now itself, after recent close door UN meeting on Kashmir, China has not supported Pakistan on its Kashmir policy. 

Hence there is a good chance that India will eventually move into PoK to integrate with J&K.

Coming months will be very action packed and dangerous but India has to go through it to end the problem permanently.